Views on the Industry

declaration of determination, part 1

(written on 12/11/03)

Economic Means to fulfill Humanistic Goals of Self-Determination:

"When great powers fall, let all know that it was because the changing tide of the freedom and determination movement that made it possible was able to adjoin itself with one another, supporting the common cause, and make the fast break to a new beginning. With a new point of view, the never inevitable became possible - - make no mistake, there was battles to be won, and agreement to settle in to roles, once aschewed, for the sake of each other, and to begin anew. For only in economic terms can achievement be measured, and so it became the raison d'etre for all those involved.

To take over an industry is the first goal - for it represents a beachhead in to the other industries. When observing the economic lay-out of the worldwide market, there is one industry with a direct impact on the livelihood of all other industries: software. Utility grids, military communication, financial trading, and suply chains all rely on the orderly flow that is possible by software systems. There have been several attempts, mainly targeted at both corporate and consumer coup d'etats, but never one that targeted the heart of the community: the developers themselves. The only validated achievement has been Microsoft, and it is only in recognition that strength lies in the heart, that the heart was finally attacked. It began with the introduction of the Java 2 Platform, Enterprise Edition, the emergence of compatibility certification with the release of the iPlanet Application Server 6.0 in June 2000. What followed was the largest explosiion the software industry had ever experienced, with BEA WebLogic, IBM WebSphere, and over 25 J2EE compatible certifications for small, large, and even some rather non-software vendors. Certification was the only necessary credential required, and portability was the typically unspoken marketing strategy for each vendor, in its quest for Microsoft's jewels. The J2EE developer happily obliged the concept of vendor leadership on implementation with the enterprise customers but never agreed to relent control of the basic constructs of their power - - which was self-determination in the form of market value for services rendered.

This came in many forms, from the overall dynamics of a "J2EE economy" within the customers, service providers, systems integrators, vendors, and the developers to the support that became the foundation of the entire Java community, due to the majority penetration over all other enterprise technologies combined. Let it be clear that J2EE is considered to represent 50% of customers that are implementing distributed, Internet systems for application development and deployment, which leaves Microsoft with a maximum penetration of 50% - - far less than their historical norms of 80-95%, approaching 99%, which constitutes their overall business startegy, of monopoly control. To understand this paradigm, from a shift in power toward Java is to understand the enormous influence the J2EE developer commands. There is no singular IT constituency in business today more instrumental than the undefined but omni-present J2EE developer.

What will happen next? The best predicter of the future is the most recent history that has upended IT, and the livelihood of most of the application server vendors. For even though the distinction between J2EE winner and loser is more defined according to current customer adoption, there remains the glaring hole in the middle of the market that was once maintained by BEA, and now, increasingly, belongs to a brash start-up with a revolutionary business model called JBoss. This hole is the sentiments of the J2EE developer, and though IBM has achieved a great deal of damage control with Eclipse, and as Sun and Oracle market more sustainable app server platforms, none of the enteprise vendors garner the necessary grass-roots level support that keeps the developer aligned. Only JBoss intrigues, only JBoss provides a model for development to be turned in to developer funding - - for as we said, it is only in economics that the achievement can be measured, and it is the prospect of a pure developer economy, and one that has the customers looking to developers, not vendors, for answers...

posted by douglas dooley @ 8:28 AM